The Kent Politics Podcast

EP87: Affordable homes and supported living refused and Kent's debt billions, featuring special guest Martin Baxter

Episode Summary

In this week’s Kent Politics Podcast, Simon and the team dig into local planning controversies, council debt woes totalling £2.3 billion, and a family’s fight for suitable housing. Special guest Martin Baxter from Electoral Calculus unpacks fresh polling data showing how tactical voting could swing key seats in 2029—and why anti-Reform sentiment is influencing surprising alliances between Labour and Conservative voters.

Episode Notes

THE KENT POLITICS PODCAST 

Episode 87 - Affordable homes and supported living refused and Kent's debt billions, featuring special guest Martin Baxter  

This week's episode explores how Reform UK's rise is reshaping Kent’s political scene, sparking tactical voting among Labour and Conservatives. Local planning disputes, council debt concerns, and shifting party fortunes highlight wider national challenges. Tactical voting now crucially influences outcomes as parties strategise for the 2029 election amidst ongoing voter disillusionment.

Episode Highlights:

• Developers refusing to build affordable homes in Bobbing, Sittingbourne.
• Medway family's fight for assisted living accommodation amid council setbacks.
• Kent councils facing a staggering £2.3 billion debt ahead of local government reform.
• Tactical voting trends reshaping the political landscape across Kent and beyond.
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Key Topics Discussed

1. Affordable Housing Controversy

Dan explores why Payne's Development is proposing zero affordable housing in their new estate near Bobbing—citing profit margins as justification under current national planning policy.

2. Medway Family’s Planning Battle

Robert shares the Butler family’s struggle after council refused permission for an annex to support their chronically ill son, despite ongoing construction on their main house and significant personal setbacks.

3. Council Debt Crisis

Simon reports that Kent's councils owe £2.3 billion collectively—a financial burden threatening the viability of upcoming reforms to unitary authorities, with stark disparities between districts.

4. Tactical Voting Insights (with Martin Baxter)

Martin unpacks fresh polling data:

• Anti-Reform UK tactical voting is emerging strongly; up to one-third of Labour voters would back Conservatives just to keep Reform out.
• Reform leads nationally but faces resistance from coordinated tactical votes by other parties’ supporters.
• Liberal Democrats remain stable around 70 seats; potential for gains if centre-ground politics resurges.
• The next election could see unpredictable three-way fights (notably Sevenoaks), making outcomes harder to forecast.

Political Landscape Updates

• Labour’s recent conference speech received mixed reviews: engaging but lacking substance according to hosts Dan and Rob.
• Keir Starmer’s leadership remains secure—for now—as no clear successor emerges, though internal challenges persist.
• Upcoming Caerphilly by-election may signal further trouble for Labour if Plaid Cymru or Reform outperform expectations.

Takeaways & Analysis

Voters are increasingly savvy about tactical voting—especially when it comes to blocking parties they oppose most. Kent faces unique pressures from developer decisions and looming council debts—local stories reflect wider national tensions.

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